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MembersLebanon as a secondary theater? The strategy behind the ceasefire

While Washington speaks of diplomacy, anger, disappointment, and a sense of betrayal prevail in northern Israel.

US President Donald Trump (right) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a meeting in the White House in Washington, September 29, 2025. Close coordination between the two played a central role in the recent decisions regarding the ceasefire in northern Israel. Photo: EPA/Jim Lo Scalzo/POOL
US President Donald Trump (right) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a meeting in the White House in Washington, September 29, 2025. Close coordination between the two played a central role in the recent decisions regarding the ceasefire in northern Israel. Photo: EPA/Jim Lo Scalzo/POOL

A ten-day ceasefire with Lebanon was announced by US President Donald Trump even before Israel’s security cabinet had made its decision. Two Israeli soldiers were killed over the weekend during the ceasefire in Lebanon. Even Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged that Israel had agreed “at the request of President Trump.” For many Israelis, that came as a shock: their security had apparently been decided elsewhere. The move triggered anger in Jerusalem and made clear just how strong American pressure had become. Netanyahu later spoke of a “historic opportunity for peace with Lebanon.” Was it capitulation, or a calculated chess move to advance larger goals in the decisive struggle with Iran, its nuclear program, and the Strait of Hormuz?

In the Arab world, a different interpretation is already circulating: that Israel agreed to the ceasefire only in order to expose Iran’s bluff. Because behind the scenes, things often unfold very differently from the public narrative. Was...

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Patrick Callahan

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