(JNS) The collapse of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad’s regime at the end of 2024 presented Israel with one of its most significant strategic opportunities in decades. The Israel Defense Forces secured key positions in southern Syria, pushed immediate threats away from the Golan Heights, prevented hostile forces from filling the vacuum and acted to protect Syria’s Druze population.
These were necessary, justified and militarily impressive achievements. But military success, however significant, is not a strategy. Israel cannot afford to win the military campaign in Syria while losing the strategic competition over Syria’s future. That competition has already begun.
Recent developments suggest that the strategic environment is shifting faster than many anticipated.
The armed clash near Beit Jinn and the recent confrontation in Abdin, together with other incidents involving Israeli forces and local communities, point to growing resistance to Israel’s presence in southern Syria. At the same time, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and senior Syrian officials have increasingly condemned that presence as an occupation and demanded Israel’s withdrawal.
This should not necessarily be...
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