Israeli media reports that in a rare and pointed security assessment, senior Israeli military officials warned that Iran—alongside other hostile actors—is actively working to assassinate Syria’s new president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, amid rising instability in the regime’s inner circle.

The intelligence assessment, presented in closed Israeli defense forums and reported by Israeli news outlet Walla, suggests that al-Sharaa, who assumed power in a transitional capacity following the removal of Bashar al-Assad, is facing real and escalating threats to his life. According to Israeli sources cited by Walla, the Syrian leader is now investing substantial resources in personal security and internal regime stabilization.

The IDF’s warning comes at a sensitive moment, as indirect contacts between Israel and Syria have quietly resumed in recent weeks—suggesting that Jerusalem is closely watching regional realignments in the wake of October 7.

Why Iran wants al-Sharaa gone

Israeli defense officials believe that Tehran views al-Sharaa as a weak link in its network of influence across the Levant. Unlike Assad, whose regime served as a reliable corridor for Iranian weapons transfers and Hezbollah entrenchment, al-Sharaa’s rise is perceived as a potential pivot point—one that could jeopardize Iranian strategic depth.

This assessment aligns with growing signs of fracture within the Syrian power structure. Sources describe al-Sharaa’s immediate entourage as tense and fragile, with competing factions vying for influence as external pressure mounts.

Israel’s position: No withdrawal from security buffer

In response to the shifting dynamics, Israel has formally reaffirmed its refusal to withdraw from the security zones it maintains inside Syrian territory, particularly in the Hermon sector. Defense Minister Israel Katz has reportedly led multiple high-level discussions in recent months with IDF brass, culminating in a consensus that Israeli military presence must remain active and visible on the Syrian front.

One senior IDF official confirmed that the general staff has endorsed the defense minister’s position, underscoring the importance of forward deployment as a deterrent and early warning shield for communities along the northern border.

The three-tier doctrine: How Israel operates in Syria

Israeli operations in Syria, according to defense sources, are now being organized around a three-zone strategic model:

1. Contact Zone – This includes Israeli territory and the immediate border area. IDF forces are tasked with direct defense of Israeli communities and infrastructure.

2. Security Envelope (approx. 15 km into Syria) – This area includes towns, villages, and transport corridors. IDF operations here aim to prevent terrorist entrenchment and the movement of hostile militias.

3. Zone of Influence – Extending from southern Sweida to the outskirts of Damascus, this demilitarized belt is monitored for attempts by Iran, Hezbollah, or other proxies to smuggle advanced weapons, build military bases, or destabilize local governance.

Strategic continuity after October 7

The renewed emphasis on maintaining these buffer zones reflects a broader shift in Israeli defense doctrine post-October 7: proactive depth defense and terrain control rather than reactive containment.

As Tehran escalates its activities in the Syrian theater—and eyes the potential replacement of a less-compliant Damascus regime—Jerusalem is signaling that it will not relinquish the operational space that has, for now, prevented Hezbollah or Iranian forces from reaching Israel’s doorstep.

The message is clear: sovereignty begins with security, and security starts beyond the fence.

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