“There is room for optimism,” said one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s advisors early in the morning after a sleepless night tracking the US election results.
It’s safe to say that Netanyahu bet everything on a Trump victory. This was his preferred outcome, despite his sometimes fraught history with Donald Trump and the uncomfortable things he has said about him. But Netanyahu believes he can handle Trump. He is confident that the people who influence Trump are on the right side, and he believes Trump is the right choice for Israel compared to the Democratic administration, which he felt despised him and wanted him ousted.
What does this mean for Israel?
Firstly, Israel is entering a critical phase. From now until Trump’s inauguration on January 20, Joe Biden remains president, with full powers to do as he pleases. Israel must be aware that Biden could use this period to settle scores with Netanyahu. The greatest concern is a repeat of the December 23, 2016 UN Security Council decision, when then-President Barack Obama, less than a month before Trump’s first entry into the White House, abstained from using the American veto, allowing a resolution against Jewish settlements to pass. This move complicated Israel’s legal situation and potentially paved the way for lawsuits in international courts. That was Obama’s revenge against Netanyahu, and Bibi should be wary of a similar scenario.
In general, it seems likely that Biden will use the last two months of his term to ramp up pressure for a deal to release the hostages and push Netanyahu for concessions, such as a withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor or similar measures. Biden will do everything in his power to advance a diplomatic settlement between Israel and Lebanon.
Netanyahu will have to navigate quite turbulent waters over the next two months, with the goal of reaching January 20 unscathed.
But no one is under the illusion that life with Trump will be a “bed of roses.” Trump also wants to end the wars in Lebanon and Gaza. He has stated this repeatedly and genuinely believes these conflicts should be resolved. Thus, Netanyahu will need to achieve maximum alignment on how to reach this goal with the greatest successes for Israel and the least concessions.
He will soon have to decide on his ambassador to Washington: it is likely he will not extend Mike Herzog’s term and will appoint a new ambassador. If he had Bibi way, he would bring Ron Dermer back to Washington, but Dermer has refused to return, so Netanyahu must seek a new candidate. One possible candidate for the position is Netanyahu’s foreign policy advisor, Ophir Falk, though Netanyahu would prefer an ambassador who is an American native.
Israel anxiously awaits a decision from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on a potential arms embargo against Israel, following their infamous letter urging Israel to improve humanitarian aid, refrain from legislation against UNRWA, and allow Red Cross visits to detained terrorists. The Americans have already indicated that Israel has not sufficiently met these demands, so an embargo remains a possibility. Trump’s victory improves Israel’s position in that such an embargo, even if imposed, would likely be lifted by Trump on his first day in office.
An important question is who will be advising Trump. In Israel, there is hope for someone like Mike Pompeo as Defense Secretary. David Friedman could also rise to a senior position, which would please residents of the biblical heartland, as Friedman has released a political plan for Israel’s future that includes extending Israeli sovereignty over Judea and Samaria. Overall, Trump’s victory will revive the right-wing dream of extending Israeli sovereignty over the settlements.
Trump’s victory could also significantly advance the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The likelihood that Biden will push the normalization agreement in the remaining two months is low, as it would require an end to the war, and Netanyahu would probably prefer to let Trump claim that success.
It’s also conceivable that Trump’s victory will prompt Iran to reconsider any attack on Israel. On one hand, Iran risks a severe response from Biden, who is under no political constraints. On the other, Iran would not want to antagonize the incoming US president. Iran might decide it’s better to refrain from retaliating or to moderate its response.
In the two months remaining until Trump’s inauguration, Netanyahu will aim to secure maximum agreement with Trump and his team on all fronts—Lebanon, Gaza, Iran, and hostages—on the strategy for the period ahead. He is also likely to be invited to the White House shortly after Trump takes office.
Another key point: Trump’s victory reduces the likelihood that the International Criminal Court in The Hague will issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and ousted Defense Minister Yoav Galant. Such warrants would trigger US sanctions against the ICC, which the Biden administration has so far prevented. Allegations of sexual harassment against Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, which raise questions about his motives, also do little for credibility.
It’s no surprise that Netanyahu was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his victory, in contrast to the last election, when he was criticized for delaying his congratulations to Biden.
Surprisingly, Trump did not mention Jews or Israel in his victory speech, though he did mention American Muslims and Arabs. This could signal his frustration with the Jewish electorate, which, as usual, overwhelmingly supported the Democrats. According to polls, Kamala Harris received around 67 percent of the Jewish vote, similar to Biden’s 69 percent in 2020. Trump’s support remained at 31 percent, as in previous years. During the campaign, Trump remarked that any Jew voting for Harris needed “a head examination.”
Trump’s first statement after his victory was that he intends to end wars, not start them. This message was directed not only at Ukraine but also at Israel. As he has announced, Trump intends to bring the wars in the north and south to a close.
Yes, Yes there is room for Optimism, but no PM Benjamin cannot handle President Trump. GOD can and HE gives America a choice, Follow HIM or a path of Death&Destruction of Our Republic of America. GOD has shown Great Mercy on our Nation. How can We give Thanks to HIM in the Troubling Times, By sharing The Only Hope for this World JESUS Messiah…GOD Bless Israel, Maranatha HOPE: Daniel 7:21-22
Be careful Israel. We are very close to that ‘man of sin’ being revealed who comes in peaceably but without the Prince of Peace, The Lord Jesus Christ.