(JNS) US Vice President JD Vance pointed to the Trump administration’s decision to go to war against Iran and the US relationship with Israel on Wednesday as among the main reasons that Republicans lost the 2026 midterms.
In a lengthy post on social media, the vice president described a conversation with a pollster who asked disaffected Republicans why they were voting for Democrats.
“The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses, were: end the war, focus on cost of living/inflation, put America first and change our relationship to Israel,” Vance wrote. “Our voters showed up, and the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats.”
US President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday night that the war against Iran “was a piece of it” in an interview about the GOP rout that saw Democrats flip senate seats in Republican strongholds like Texas and Kansas.
Trump added that he “would have done it again” and did not regret starting the war.
Vance went further than Trump on Wednesday, while attributing the argument to the president.
“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” he wrote. “If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.”
Exit polls suggest that US foreign policy and the Iran war were key issues for voters on Tuesday, along with related issues like the cost of living. The conflict is deeply unpopular and has caused nationwide spikes in the prices of gasoline and diesel fuel, which have hammered the president’s approval rating on the economy.
William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and chair of its governance studies program, told JNS that Vance’s explanation of election results is “interesting but wrong.”
“I’m not sure where he’s getting his information, but I know where I’m getting my information, which is from publicly available exit polls and other sources,” Galston said, of the vice president’s claim that Trump-Vance voters voted for Democrats on Tuesday.
“It’s demonstrable that they didn’t,” Galston said. “I’m looking at the exit polls right here. Only 7% of them did. The real explanation for what happened is that Trump-Vance voters stayed home in droves.”
Vance has described himself as having “realist” foreign policy views and has expressed skepticism about the nature of the US-Israel relationship in the past.
Galston, who called Vance “more of an America firster,” told JNS that many Republicans and Democrats would favor a revision of US-Israel ties but that voters were more focused on pocketbook issues.
“If you go to Iowa and ask people what they’re really concerned about, they’re really concerned about high diesel prices, because all the farm equipment runs on that,” Galston said. “They’re really concerned about high fertilizer prices, because all their crops depend upon it. They’re really concerned about the shut off of Chinese imports of agricultural products.”
Vance was one of the lead negotiators in peace talks with Iran and sent a letter to the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council in October to restart negotiations, the Wall Street Journal reported.
With the 2026 midterms over, Vance’s assessment will likely play into intra-Republican debates about how to approach the 2028 presidential election, in which Vance will be one of the front runners if he should decide to run.
Vance’s criticism of “establishment politicians” while avoiding directly blaming the decision to go to war on the president or the administration, in which he serves, contrasts with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, another potential 2028 Republican candidate whose state was one of the only bright spots for Republicans on Tuesday.
DeSantis laid the Iran war and voter dissatisfaction squarely on Trump in an interview with Stephen A. Smith on Monday.
“He obviously ran saying he wasn’t going to do a Middle East war, then he did,” DeSantis said.
Galston told JNS that the timing of Vance’s apparent break with Trump was “extremely unusual” for a vice president and contrasted Vance with Hubert Humphrey, who waited to break with Lyndon Johnson on the Vietnam War until he was named as the Democratic nominee in 1968.
“This is the kind of preemptive move that a candidate for president, certainly if that candidate is the vice president, would make to separate himself from something very unpopular that the president has done,” Galston said. “The difference is that usually candidates wait until they’ve been nominated to break with the president.”
Trump hinted at Vance’s views on the Iran War and its effect on voters on Wednesday when he was asked about the statement by reporters during remarks at the White House ballroom construction site.
“I know how he feels about it,” Trump said of Vance. “I knew that when I went in.”
Trump called the statement “fine” and “good” and declined to speculate about Vance’s possible run for the presidency.
“Maybe he won’t run—I don’t know who’s gonna run,” Trump said. “But I can tell you that as far as that war is concerned, I would have done nothing different.”
Want more news from Israel?
Click Here to sign up for our FREE daily email updates
