A house divided against itself?

Disunity in the Iranian axis prevented an even worse nightmare on October 7, according to two Israeli experts.

By David Shishkoff | | Topics: Iran, Hamas
The chances of the Gaza war spreading to Lebanon and elsewhere are very high. Photo by Shutterstock
The chances of the Gaza war spreading to Lebanon and elsewhere remain very high. Photo by Shutterstock

Two retired senior IDF officers, in spite of being among those who tried to warn the country of danger, are now helping us to see the cup as half full.

General (ret.) Yitzhak Brick and former intelligence officer Mordechai Kedar have both gone on record in Hebrew to say that the surprise attack by Iran and its proxies was supposed to have been a lot bigger than “just” several thousand Hamas murderers accompanied by several thousand Hamas rockets. General Brick goes so far as to say, “A great miracle happened to us.” After the massacre and hostage taking of October 7, that sentence is almost unintelligible.

Yet, he says, there are 10,000 much more highly-trained Hezbollah commandos who were liable to have attacked from Lebanon in the north and to have done even more damage to the Galilee than Hamas did in the south. Hezbollah is also thought to have 150,000 missiles pointing at Israel. Brick does not hesitate in describing a scenario in which this could have snowballed into World War 3.

The Iranian proxies making up its evil axis are the Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Syria and Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen and the (Sunni) Hamas in Gaza.

Iran funded and trained these proxies to be ready for attacking Israel simultaneously at the moment of Tehran’s choosing. This was supposed to have included surprise large-scale attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon to capture much of the Galilee and rain down thousands of missiles. It was supposed to have included Iranian militias from Syria and Iraq, and attacks from Yemen. Ideally, Iran was waiting until after it would already have a nuclear arsenal to deter direct reprisals.

According to these two experts, the attacks Israel has experienced from Lebanon (and Yemen) are only small token gestures; and barring unforeseen developments their analysis is that Hezbollah is not likely to go “all in” now, with the element of surprise lost, with IDF reserve forces activated and with a US military shield strengthened by newly arrived US aircraft carrier forces.

Listen to one of the evidences Kedar points to:

Musa Abu Marzuk, a senior figure in the Hamas terror organization was interviewed in Arabic by “Orient News” after October 7. He was asked how the cooperation is going among the Hezbollah and other Iranian umbrella groups, in supporting Hamas. In response he said that sadly there is no coordination, even though he said they are communicating, and that Hamas has invited them to join the war. He continued, “But I must say with all honesty, that we would have expected more understanding from [Iran], and we are calling them to participate more [in the war efforts against Israel].” According the Kedar’s analysis, Hamas now feels alone in the struggle against the stronger forces of the IDF, which are free to do as they please to Hamas, since its partners in the Iranian axis have basically abandoned them and left them alone in the fight. According to Kedar, Hamas made the decision to strike without instruction and permission from Iran, for its own reasons.

By the way, this is the same fluent Arabic-speaking Kedar who in an interview with Al Jazeera a few years back rebuffed Islamic claims to sovereignty over Jerusalem, in Arabic, saying, “Why does Israel have to ask permission? We were here [in this land] when your forefathers [in Arabia] were drinking wine [later forbidden by Islam], burying their daughters alive and worshipping idols.”

One very important bottom line:

Pray for unity in Israel, and…

Pray for disunity among her enemies, because “A house divided against itself cannot stand.”