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MembersPolls, blocs and mergers: Setting the stage for Israel Election 2026

With the principal blocs separated by a handful of seats in most polls, the campaign could be decided less by movement between Netanyahu’s Likud and Eisenkot’s Yashar than by which smaller parties survive the 3.25% electoral threshold.

Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu casts his ballot at a voting station in Jerusalem alongside his wife, Sara, on Nov. 1, 2022. Photo by Olivier FitoussiFlash90.
Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu casts his ballot at a voting station in Jerusalem alongside his wife, Sara, on Nov. 1, 2022. Photo by Olivier FitoussiFlash90.

(JNS) The 25th Knesset dissolved itself on Friday, formally opening a campaign that will end with national elections on Oct. 27. The outgoing parliament became the first since 1988 to complete a full term, a point coalition whip Ofir Katz underscored as lawmakers adjourned: “Ultimately, despite everything that was said, this Knesset is completing its full term.”

The election date is fixed; the political map is not. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud are fighting for first place across much of the mainstream polling, but the size and sometimes even the direction of the gap depends heavily on the pollster.

A July 5 Kan survey put the two parties level at 23 Knesset seats each, while a Maariv poll published a week later gave Yashar a narrow 23-22 advantage. A polling average published by Statista on July 15, aggregating seven major Israeli media poll series, placed Likud ahead at 24.6 seats to Yashar’s 21.9. Channel 14’s Filber polls, meanwhile, have...

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Patrick Callahan

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