Rarely have opportunities and risks lain so close together; rarely has so much depended on a few interdependent decisions. Our political commentator Yossi Aloni summarizes what he has learned from government circles.

Iran

The wave of protests in Iran that erupted at the end of December 2025 is regarded by numerous experts as a severe threat to the regime. The country has not experienced such a powerful shock since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The trigger was a massive economic crisis with high inflation, the collapse of the rial, and widespread unemployment. The protests quickly turned into open demands for the overthrow of the ayatollahs.

The most dramatic development is the direct involvement of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who from his exile in the United States called on the demonstrators to take to the streets at precisely set times—around 8 p.m., for example. Accordingly coordinated protests took place in numerous cities. Monarchist symbols such as the lion-and-sun flag were displayed en masse. Reports speak of hundreds of thousands up to millions of participants. The...

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