While some polls show Likud at only around 20 seats, Netanyahu’s party reaches figures close to 30 on Channel 14 and i24NEWS. This is no minor statistical footnote: ten seats can determine which political bloc achieves the 61 seats needed to form a government. The Israeli election campaign has therefore also become a campaign of polls. Both pictures are presented to Israelis almost simultaneously as the latest “Sunday question.” This is no longer a small statistical deviation. It is a difference that can determine who governs Israel after the elections. And it shows how unusual this election campaign has become. In Israel, the debate is no longer just about who the population will vote for, but even about how that population can be measured at all.
20 or 30 seats? The differences are enormous. Several polls from media outlets such as Channel 11, 12, and 13, as well as other institutes, most recently place Likud broadly in the range of 19 to 21 seats. By contrast, polls from the right-leaning environment of Channel 14 and i24NEWS paint a completely different...
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