Israel’s aerial offensive inside Iran overnight Friday caused severe damage to Tehran’s ballistic missile program, according to analyses of satellite imagery.
Dubbed by Jerusalem “Operation Days of Repentance,” the strikes were in response to Iran firing a barrage of some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Oct. 1. Some 100 fighter jets, spy planes and refueling aircraft flew across the Middle East on Friday night to attack 20 missile and drone facilities across Iran in three waves.
The Israeli strikes may have “significantly hampered Iran’s ability to mass produce missiles,” Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization based in Washington, told Reuters after examining the satellite photos.
The news agency also cited David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector.
According to the researchers, Israeli fighter jets bombed buildings at Parchin, a massive military complex near Tehran, as well as Khojir, a sprawling missile production site close to the capital that Reuters reported in July was undergoing significant expansion.
Albright said that commercial satellite imagery also shows damage to Taleghan 2, a building in Parchin that was previously linked to Tehran’s nuclear weapons program. It was used for testing activities during the Amad project, which started in 1989 and stopped in 2003, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, but which Israel suspects to have continued.
According to Albright, Israel damaged three buildings about 350 yards (320 meters) from Taleghan 2, including two in which solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.
Eveleth said that satellite imagery from Parchin provided by Planet Labs showed that Israel destroyed three ballistic missile solid-fuel mixing buildings and a warehouse.
@planet 3m imagery taken this morning of Khojir and Parchin missile production facilities show precise strikes on warehouses and mixing buildings associated with the production of solid-fueled ballistic missiles. pic.twitter.com/Qpodu4pN5m
— Decker Eveleth (@dex_eve) October 26, 2024
The Planet Labs imagery also showed the destruction of two buildings at Khojir where solid fuel for ballistic missiles was mixed.
“Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers. These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense, and will likely have a hard time replacing them,” Eveleth noted, adding that “the strikes appear to be highly accurate.”
U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal that it could take years to restore Iran’s ballistic missile industry following the Israeli attacks.
Axios reported that Israel destroyed 12 mixers used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles, with three unnamed Israeli sources saying that the attack caused severe damage to Tehran’s ability to renew its missile stockpile and could deter the Islamic Regime from committing to more massive missile attacks on the Jewish state.
The Saudi website Elaph reported that each fuel mixer is valued at a minimum of $2 million and that a large number were destroyed. Sources familiar with Tehran’s missile industry told the Saudi site that it would take at least two years to bring the plant back into operation, emphasizing that Israel has significantly set back Tehran’s missile production capabilities.
Fears in Iran of future attacks
Iranian officials told The New York Times that the Israeli strikes have caused serious concern that the country is now exposed to future Israeli attack, with sources in Iran and Israel telling the Times that Israel destroyed air defense systems protecting the country’s oil, gas and petrochemical facilities.
Israeli fighter jets reportedly attacked the air defense systems at the Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex and nearby economic port in Khuzestan province, the Abadan refinery and the Tange Bijar gas field in Ilam province and at Khomeini International Airport in Tehran.
Three Russia-made S-300 air-defense systems were reportedly disabled at the airport and at the Malad missile base near the capital. In April, Israel responded to the first-ever direct Iranian attack with an attack on the air defense radar site at an airbase near Isfahan, in central Iran.
Ouch.
An Israeli source told the Wall Street Journal that Iran had four S-300 air defense batteries, considered the most advanced systems in Iran’s air defense network. During Israel’s strike on Iran over the weekend, all these systems were destroyed. pic.twitter.com/WUImJAuazR
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 27, 2024
According to Iranian media, four soldiers were killed in the Israeli strikes.
“Israel is sending us a very clear message,” Hamid Hosseini, an expert in Iran’s gas and oil industry, told The New York Times. “This could have very serious economic implications for Iran, and now we understand the risk and that we need to act wisely and not continue with the tension.”
Ali Vaez, an Iran researcher, told the Times that the attack could set up a much heavier attack on Iran’s nuclear and energy facilities.
“Iran does not have the capability to replace the damaged facilities in the near future,” he said.
Netanyahu denies U.S. pressure limited attack
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office on Saturday night denied reports that American pressure limited the Israeli attack, calling the reports “completely false.”
Two Israeli sources told the Times that the original plans crafted immediately after the Iranian missile attack called for targeting Tehran’s nuclear program and energy industry, but that Jerusalem chose to only attack air defense systems protecting these sites due to intense American pressure.
“Israel chose its targets for the attack based on its national interests, not according to American dictates. This was the case and will remain so,” the PMO statement read.
Iran’s regime has publicly downplayed the significance of the attack, saying that “very light warheads” were used and calling the damage “limited.”
Furthermore, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council reportedly held a high-level emergency meeting after the attack, with military commanders briefing on the attack and the council discussing a possible response, but with no decision made.
While Reuters quoted the foreign ministry as saying that Iran was “entitled and obligated” to defend itself, the news agency noted a more conciliatory tone in the statement compared to previous rounds of escalation, with the ministry adding that it “recognizes its responsibilities towards regional peace and security.”
