(JNS) Following reports that Iran is actively reconstructing a sensitive facility known as Taleghan 2 at its Parchin military complex near Tehran, a site long linked to nuclear weaponization that was struck by Israel in October 2024, top Israeli observers assess that the move signals Tehran’s long-term intentions to rebuild its capabilities.

Following the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June, assessments in Israel are that a massive string of strikes set back Iran’s nuclear program by years.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Professor Jacob Nagel, a former acting national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a former head of Israel’s National Security Council, who is today a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that even though voices are heard in Iran casting doubt on the nuclear path taken by the regime in light of its failure to deliver the goods, “the position of the leader and his close circle is to continue on the old path.”

Nagel assessed that the regime has carefully sequenced its recovery from the devastating strikes of the war. This, it is possible to assume, is designed to achieve rehabilitation of capabilities through an order of priorities that the Iranians think would cause the least danger of a repeat attack, and therefore begins with the rehabilitation of air defense.

“After which they will try to rehabilitate the production capacity of ballistic missiles and only at the end to deal with the rehabilitation of nuclear capabilities,” Nagel said.

The reconstruction at Parchin, he argued, is a move the Iranians can make under a veil of secrecy precisely because they have always lied about the site’s purpose.

“The Iranians never admitted that the site that was attacked in Parchin was used for their nuclear program and claimed that it is used for academic research activity. Therefore, on the one hand, they could not claim that Israel attacked a nuclear facility, and on the other hand, they are probably allowing themselves to rehabilitate it, in a way that does not allow for the identification from the air or from space of the real activity under camouflage and its purpose,” said Nagel.

In Nagel’s opinion, the defiant recent rhetoric from Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian, is part of a dual message. “On the one hand, avoiding the rehabilitation of nuclear capabilities [immediately] and on the other hand conveying a message that they are not giving up on the future,” he said.

On Oct. 21, Khamenei dismissed US President Donald Trump’s statements that Iran’s nuclear sites had been destroyed in June, saying he was “dreaming,” while Pezeshkian stated that the West’s goal with “snapback” sanctions was to hurt Iran’s oil exports and trade.

An Oct. 20 report by the Washington DC-based Institute for Science and International Security used satellite imagery to identify significant new construction at Taleghan 2, a site formerly part of Iran’s pre-2003 nuclear weapons plan, known by its Persian acronym, AMAD. The report described the construction of a large, high-bay building and other activities, suggesting a revitalization of the sensitive location.

Nevertheless, Nagel concluded that the Iranian nuclear program remains crippled for the short term. “There is no doubt that the Iranian nuclear program has taken a severe blow,” he said, noting that there are those analysts who believe that it will take at least three more years, until Trump steps down, for the Iranians to dare to publicly resume clear nuclear activities.

“In light of this, it can be said that the activities at Parchin do not at this stage constitute a deviation from this line, unless it is clearly proven that activity directly related to the nuclear program is being carried out there,” he said.

A new nuclear power plant deal with Russia, according to which Moscow would build four civilian reactors in Iran, is not the restart of a military nuclear program either, according to Nagel.

“The West encourages Iran to purchase closed packages of green energy from abroad, where the nuclear fuel is supplied as part of the package, including its removal from the country after its irradiation, for replacement,” he said.

Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz, a senior researcher on Iran and the Shi’ite Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, who served 25 years in IDF Military Intelligence, including as head of the Iran branch, warned that “in general, the Israeli and American attack severely damaged Iran’s nuclear sites, but the problem is far from being solved. Satellite photographs show that Tehran is rehabilitating the enrichment sites, and the knowledge that its scientists have—since the knowledge cannot be erased—allows it to rehabilitate the sites.”

Citrinowicz pointed to a growing and dangerous public debate inside Iran regarding the necessity of a nuclear bomb following the regime’s failures.

“There is a question regarding Iran’s nuclear strategy,” he told JNS. “It is clear that Iran is not giving up on enrichment on its soil—as evidenced by Khamenei’s words on the subject—and the collapse of Iranian deterrence in the war. This is leading to an intense public discourse regarding the Iranian need to obtain a bomb.”

It must be admitted, he added, that the attack by Israel and the US on Iran’s nuclear facilities “brought an Iranian decision on the subject closer, although it is not at all clear if Iran will really seek to obtain a bomb.”

Regarding the reconstruction at Parchin’s Taleghan 2 site, Citrinowicz said it is difficult to be certain of its purpose. He noted that Parchin is a military base that in the past also saw activity by the Iranian nuclear weapons “group,” which is responsible for building the nuclear warhead.

It is difficult to know whether the rehabilitation seen in the satellite photograph is related to an Iranian decision on the nuclear issue or to another issue, he cautioned. Either way, though, the rehabilitation efforts at Taleghan 2 and the rehabilitation efforts at the enrichment sites indicate that “Iran is far from giving up on its nuclear sites,” he said.

The recently signed Russian nuclear reactor deal appears to be a “political attempt by the leadership in Iran to show its population that it is acting to find a solution to the energy crisis in the country,” he added. “On the other hand, it allows Russia to strengthen its ties with Iran, which were somewhat cracked in the wake of the war. I think there will be a gap between the agreement and the actual implementation.”

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