On October 7, 2023, Hamas succeeded in bringing the “Palestinian cause” back into the international spotlight after it had faded to the background amidst Israeli-Arab normalization. But the plan was deeply flawed. It had been ill-informed by the outcomes of previous Gaza wars, and Hamas miscalculated its ability to win a full-scale guerrilla war against Israel.
Yes, the current war has lasted much longer than most of Israel’s previous wars. And yes, it has been challenging for the nation to be in a state of war for such a duration. Still, it hasn’t become “Israel’s Vietnam,” as so many warned it would.
Like in Vietnam, Afghanistan and other successful guerrilla wars, Hamas threatened and Western experts cautioned that Israel would suffer considerable casualties and ultimately be unable to truly defeat the terrorist militia. Before long, public support for the war would wane, and the government would be compelled to withdraw the IDF, leaving Hamas in control.
Instead, Israel has managed to decimate Hamas’s military forces, while keeping its own casualties comparatively low.
The elements of guerrilla warfare
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