More and more actors within Israel’s security establishment and in Washington now understand that the real question is not whether Hamas will survive in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon. The decisive question is whether Iran will succeed in preserving its status as a near-nuclear regional power that maintains an entire network of terror proxies.

At the center of this drama stands the United States. Donald Trump is increasingly losing patience with what he sees as continued Iranian humiliation. Trump entered the current round with the idea that Tehran could be forced to yield through economic and military pressure and through international mediation. Contrary to expectations, he is encountering a stubborn, divided, ideological regime that believes time is working in its favor and that it will emerge from the matter either victorious or at least still standing — which it regards as a kind of victory.

Double game

The Iranians are playing a double game. On the one hand, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and representatives of the moderate camp are conducting indirect talks...

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