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MembersEarthquakes in the Middle East: Have the existing rules of deterrence broken down?

Anyone who wants to understand the Middle East must not only be familiar with the Israeli or Western perspective. It is equally important to listen carefully to how the Arab world interprets these developments.

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Especially in times of a rapidly changing security situation, it is worthwhile to read analyses from Beirut, Cairo, or the Gulf States. Not because their conclusions are necessarily correct, but because they offer insight into the strategic thinking of the other side and thus help to better understand political and military decisions in the region.

A detailed analysis by the Lebanese news portal Elnashra.com (in Arabic) paints a dramatic picture of the current situation. From a Lebanese perspective, the Middle East is already in the midst of a historic upheaval. The authors warn that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear and oil facilities could trigger a global conflict. The background to this is the blockade of strategic shipping lanes, the diminishing deterrent effect of Israel, and the increasing escalation between Tehran, Jerusalem, and Washington. The Israeli threat to attack nuclear and energy facilities on Iranian territory is now considered in Washington to be the “last red line”—a step that, according to the Arab authors, could ignite a Third World War originating in the Middle East.

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Patrick Callahan

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