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MembersLikud surprises, pollsters fail – battle for 61 seats not yet decided

Netanyahu performs significantly better than expected, yet falls short of a governing majority so far. The surprising election results and the possible coalition scenarios.

Likud supporters celebrate at the party's election headquarters in Jerusalem following the announcement of the first election polls on October 28, 2026. Photo: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90
Likud supporters celebrate at the party's election headquarters in Jerusalem following the announcement of the first election polls on October 28, 2026. Photo: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90

Despite the picture that emerged overnight, the final results of the elections will not be known until Friday morning. The reason is an unprecedented number of double envelopes, whose counting has not yet begun – approximately 650,000 in total. The high number is primarily due to several factors:

  • Numerous soldiers in regular service and reservists who voted in the various deployment zones.
  • Many people who were evacuated from their homes.
  • The sick and hospital patients.

There are clear trends, but the number of votes yet to be counted is so large that it could shift the distribution of seats at the margins of the political blocs and change the overall picture. Anyone already attempting to predict the next coalition is doing so without actual election results.

The failure of the pollsters

The big losers of the night are the pollsters. The latest polls had predicted only 19 seats for the Likud. However,...

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Patrick Callahan

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