After a phase that appeared to be a strategic turning point, in which Israel succeeded in significantly weakening Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” achieving ceasefires in Gaza and southern Lebanon, and contributing to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the Middle East is now returning to a state of increasing concern.
The protracted war seemingly ended in June 2025 with “Operation Midnight Hammer” against Iran and the so-called Trump Agreement a few months later. Yet signs of hostile forces regrouping, combined with failures in international control mechanisms, suggest the region could slide back into a violent cycle. Let’s examine the central fronts—Iran, Lebanon/Hezbollah, and Gaza—based on intelligence assessments, current reports, and immediate risks.
1. Iran: Renewed confrontation—only a matter of time, with the risk of a deadly miscalculation
Officials in the Middle East and Western experts warn that another round of fighting between Israel and Iran is “only a matter of time.”
After the “Twelve-Day War” in...
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