(JNS) The successful defense of Israel against unprecedented Iranian barrages of more than 530 ballistic missiles, launched in 42 salvos, during the June war was a landmark achievement for Israeli and American air defense technology. Still, the 12-day conflict also exposed a gap between the expenditure on advanced interceptors and the slow pace of their production.

While Israel’s multi-layered defense shield performed exceptionally well, the sheer volume of the Iranian assault forced both the IDF and the US military to burn through a significant portion of their most advanced and expensive interceptors, a stockpile that will take years to replenish.

During Operation Rising Lion (June 13-24), Iranian missile attacks ultimately resulted in 36 to 40 direct impacts in urban areas, causing 30 fatalities.

The overall declared interception success rate for ballistic missiles that were engaged by the defense systems was 86 percent. This success was the result of a multi-layered, interoperable defense effort. In addition to the Israeli Arrow 3, which operates in space, and Arrow 2 interceptors, which operate in the upper atmosphere.

All branches of the US military were also involved, with two American THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense)  batteries firing more than 80 interceptors, and maritime Aegis systems launching four to five SM (Standard Missile) 3 missile interceptors, facing apparent restrictions due to a lack of interceptors. American SM-6 missiles were also likely fired from ships to engage Iranian threats.

The Israeli-manufactured David’s Sling and even Iron Dome are being integrated to handle threats at lower altitudes. This success came at a steep price in munitions.

According to a July 25 report in The War Zone, the US fired more than 150 of its premier THAAD missiles to defend Israel during the 12-day war.

A Western observer with deep knowledge of missile programs told JNS in recent days that replenishing this stockpile highlights a significant challenge in the United States.

“America is currently in a rather strange situation where the production rate of its interceptors for the upper, exo-atmospheric layer, which is THAAD or SM-3, is relatively slow,” the observer said. “The budget request for next year is for 37 THAAD missiles. That’s it. It will take them until Dec. 1, 2029, to finish replacing the missiles. That is the date they will finish replenishing them. That’s almost four and a half years.”

The source argued, “The fact that at the beginning the performance was good and slowly degraded is probably because the inventory of Arrow 3 also decreased, and then they were more careful in their use.”

While facing a similar sustainment challenge, the Israeli-made Arrow 3 proved to be a far more cost-effective system, said the source. According to the observer’s analysis, a US THAAD interceptor costs approximately $14 million per unit, while an Israeli Arrow 3 reportedly costs around $2.5 million.

“The cost-effectiveness of the industry in Israel is good,” he stated, noting that the Arrow 3 also has a battle space engagement zone that is roughly ten times larger than its American counterparts.

On July 17, the Israeli Defense Ministry said it signed a major contract with Israel Aerospace Industries to accelerate mass production of Arrow interceptors to speed up replenishments.

More than a month after the war with Iran, the focus has shifted to the next phase of the arms race. According to the Western observer, Iran is already moving to address the vulnerabilities that Israel exposed.

“It is completely clear that Iran is running to China to buy long-range and medium-range air defense,” he said. “The Iranians appealed to the Chinese for two things: a Chinese HQ-9, which is an improved [version of the Russian-made] S-300, and an HQ-16 for medium range. I estimate that very soon they will start receiving these things, and yes, they will rehabilitate these capabilities.”

Iran will also likely focus on rebuilding its ballistic missile production and improving its accuracy. The missiles that struck Israel demonstrated a precision of “several dozens of meters,” according to the observer.

While less accurate than Western munitions, this is a significant capability that Iran is expected to improve. The war raging in Ukraine has demonstrated that even with advanced Western air defenses, a determined attacker with a large volume of missiles can still inflict significant damage.

Meanwhile, a July 30 report in the Kyiv Post stated that Iran tested a Russian S-400 air defense battery in its first operational exercise.

The source stressed that information would be required on the kind of radar system used in the exercise, as well as the fire control system, the computer that links radar data to launches of interceptions. “What sort of interceptors did they use? There are many types of combinations,” the source stressed.

For Israel, the path forward is clear, he said. “It is clear that Israel needs to renew both its inventory of strike missiles and its inventory of defense missiles,” the observer stated.

This involves not only replenishing the Arrow 3 stockpile but also acquiring more advanced offensive stand-off strike missiles that can be launched from very long ranges, to neutralize threats before they are launched. Israel must not depend on acquiring such capabilities externally, the source said.

The arms race between Jerusalem and Tehran looks set to continue, even after Israel demonstrated technological and operational superiority during the first major war with Iran.

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