Tachles with Aviel – Israel must frighten its enemies again

The unprecedented Iranian assault early Sunday morning has far-reaching consequences. As does the manner in which Israel responds.

By Aviel Schneider | | Topics: Iran
Photo: Shutterstock

Ninety-nine percent of the drones, cruise missiles and surface-to-surface ballistic missiles Iran fired earlier this week were intercepted outside Israel’s borders. A strategic miracle. Although Iran and the Palestinians spread fake news on social media that Israel was on fire, the opposite was in fact true. We sat in the shelters, heard loud explosions around us, but Israel is alive. Israel’s defense systems embarrassed the Iranians. The world praised Israel’s missile defenses and air force for thwarting Iran. Israeli air defense is the greatest blessing for the State of Israel. With a limited budget and in record time, Israel has developed into a military power like no other country in the world. There has never before been a rocket spectacle like that in the predawn hours of Sunday morning.

The missile defenses down drones and missiles from Iran over the city of Hebron on April 14, 2024. Photo by Wisam Hashlamoun/Flash90

But now Israel must respond to the Iranian attack – and in a significant way. This is what the government and the security apparatus promised the Israeli people. The problem is that US President Joe Biden is against it and is trying to deter Israel from retaliating. Israel must now decide between what is necessary for Israel and what is important for the Americans. To regain its deterrence strategy in the Middle East, Israel has no choice but to attack Iran. Under no circumstances should Israel make the same mistake it made in the first Gulf War, when it failed to respond to Iraqi missile attacks at the request of the Americans. At that time, 39 Scud missiles were fired at Israel, and Washington demanded strict restraint from Israel so as not to endanger the Arab alliance against Iraq. But this has worn down Israel’s deterrence strategy over the years. Everyone knows they can attack Israel with little threat of serious reprisal. The Arabs interpreted this as weakness.

Throughout this unprecedented attack, Israel Today was here to keep you informed via our Telegram channel. Don’t miss our live updates as dramatic events unfold in Israel – Join Israel Today on Telegram

People take shelter in a stairwell in Jerusalem after drones and missiles from Iran raised the alarm. April 14, 2024. Photo by Arie Leib Abrams/Flash90.

Israel must not make the same mistake with Iran. Israel must respond to warn not only Iran, but all of its proxies. Hezbollah in Lebanon must be deterred. They are now saying to themselves that if this is all Iran can do to attack Israel, then Hezbollah will have to think twice about dragging Lebanon into a war. This will become even more convincing if Israel defeats Iran, and we all know that Iran does not have as effective an air defense system as Israel. Without fear of Israel, it becomes nearly impossible to exist in the Middle East in the long term. Israel must instill new fear in its enemies so that they are and remain intimidated for decades to come. Washington wants to prevent this, firstly because of the upcoming elections in November, and secondly because the Americans fear that an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran could trigger a world war. That may be so, but Israel has no choice.

Yesterday there was also a historic cooperation between Israel and Jordan. For the first time ever, there was military cooperation between the two countries, and that is a direct message to Iran. An impressive defensive effort by regional partners. Although Jordan has often criticized Israel over the war in Gaza, this behind-the-scenes cooperation has revealed a different reality. Everyone knows that Iran and its proxies are the real enemy in the Middle East. The regional coalition of moderate Sunni countries knows who are the good guys and who are the bad guys. The problem is not the war in Gaza, but Iran and its hegemonic schemes.

But just as Israel’s air defense system was a great blessing this week, that same system was also Israel’s greatest curse until October 7th. Until then, Israel relied only on the Iron Dome missile defense system, which successfully intercepted most rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip. That paralyzed Israel, and so that black Shabbat morning, Israel was caught off guard by the Hamas terrorists in the south. What happened over our heads early Sunday was a kind of redemption, relief and new hope for this country. But Israel must respond, not out of revenge, but as a tactical matter. This is the only way Israel can survive in this region. There will be consequences, but everything in life is a risk.

Now it is the turn of the Iranians. Gas stations, supermarkets and schools are being closed. Israel must respond, but how? Israel must choose between retaliation under the intent test or the result test. A response under the test of intent is harsh and would require a very significant escalation in the region, but it would signal that Israel should not be messed with. A response based on the outcome or result test is more likely to be a moderate strike against Iran. However, this will not help Israel’s deterrence strategy. Israel will try to find a middle ground and make the strength of the response dependent on practical steps to bolster the coalition against Iran. Jordanian warplanes and American missiles intercepting Iranian drones was just the beginning. Strengthening this coalition is necessary for Israel and the other allies. It’s a new Middle East.

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2 responses to “Tachles with Aviel – Israel must frighten its enemies again”

  1. Johanel Rosenbaum says:

    If Aviel tell us about Israeli and Jordan axis (maybe even with Saudi and Emirates, possibly also Syria and christian fractions in Lebanon) as one with moderate Muslims – than he should say that Israel must go ahead with its strategy since 10/7: Attacking the leaders, not the the people.
    Any military response to the massive Iranian attack will bring down this cooperation moderate sunni leaders want, because they also are in a stand before their own people.
    So: just let the Iranian, Hezbollah, Hamas Nazi-leaders wait for their own death. To win not only this war but the whole Middle East Israel has to avoid any military conflict with states, even Iran.
    It has to destroy Iran as a state, it has to destroy radical Muslim organisations. Either by destabilization of Irans multi-cultural prison-society, either by liquidation of radical leaders.

  2. Johanel Rosenbaum says:

    On the other hand we, the Israeli society as a whole, must not discuss a strike back. It is NOW the time to bring forward a positive vision for a New Gaza. This cannot mean anything else as changing the refugee slum to a hub of trade, freedom and prosperity like Malta, Singapore or former Hong Kong. A Free Zone under Israeli control – fast growing, much work, maybe – in long sight – even tourism.
    This vision will bring all backward fights to an end. Exactly that is an offer, every human wants for to keep peace: chances, challenges, work, prosperity, uprising, good live, happiness. That will bring all these disgusting old radical muslim leaders to die even if they are not killed.

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