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MembersThe cost of assumptions: Iran, Oct. 7 and the power of a ‘conceptzia’

The Israel Defense Forces’ preparedness against the Islamic Republic stands in stark contrast to its strategic failures on Oct. 7, 2023.

Iran
F-15I fighter jets headed for a strike in Tehran, June 2025; destruction in Kibbutz Be'eri after the Hamas invasion of Oct. 7, 2023. Credits: IDF, Kobi Gideon/GPO.

(JNS) The IDF’s performance against Iran throws into sharp relief the difference a conceptzia can make. The same military that reeled against a Hamas onslaught on Oct. 7, 2023, acted with jaw-dropping efficiency 20 months later.

It was, in large part, due to the way the Israel Defense Forces viewed the threat from Iran vs. that from Gaza. Clear-eyed about the dangers from one, it was blinded by misconceptions about the other.

“When your enemies say something, they usually mean what they say. In Iran’s case, we understood that. In Hamas’s case, we did not,” Or Yissachar, director of research at the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), told JNS.

The conceptzia that misled the IDF about Hamas consisted of a series of governing assumptions: 1) Hamas had been deterred, particularly after 2021’s “Operation Guardian of the Walls”; 2) Hamas was contained—its rockets by the Iron Dome, its invasion tunnels by the “Iron...

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Patrick Callahan

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