The diplomatic crisis between Israel and Turkey has reached new, unprecedented dimensions—against the backdrop of the trilateral summit in Jerusalem between the leaders of Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, which Ankara perceives as an aggressive move against Turkey.

The government-aligned daily newspaper Yeni Şafak, considered a mouthpiece of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, ran the headline on its front page today: “From today, Israel is Threat Number 1.”

The article refers both to the trilateral summit with the Hellenes and to reports of recent firefights in Aleppo. According to the newspaper, Israel deployed the Kurdish SDF during the summit to embarrass Turkey in Syria. “All security institutions of the Turkish state now regard Israel as the main threat,” the paper states. It goes on to specify that Israel will henceforth be classified as Threat Number One in the Defense Ministry, the Foreign Ministry, and the Turkish intelligence service Milli İstihbarat Teşkilatı (MIT). According to the report, all these institutions are now placing Israel at the very top of their priority lists.

This is an extremely unusual reaction, unprecedented in its sharpness in Turkey.

In this context, it should be noted that the United States continues to pressure Israel to agree to Turkish participation in the International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza as well as in the general reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Israel categorically rejects this, yet American pressure persists. A senior Israeli government official commented: “Everyone understands that Turkey will not be part of the international force.”

Alon Liel, former Director General of the Israeli Foreign Ministry and former head of the Israeli representation in Turkey, warns that Ankara is preparing for a future war with Israel in light of the military alliance between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, and is in a state of panic.

In an interview with Yedioth Ahronoth and Ynet, Liel said:

“I know that Turkey is preparing for war. I see their preparations. They define it as strengthening air defense and the air force, and they are redirecting enormous budgets there. They are literally in a panic that we might attack them. They are taking this more seriously than one can imagine. They are arming themselves with new F-35 aircraft. They are changing their entire air force structure. They know they have a strong navy and strong ground forces—but in the air force we will finish them. One area in which they are particularly strong is drones. Drone production is being doubled.”

Liel further warned that Turkey interprets the alliance between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus as an offensive step by Israel:

“One must reach an agreement with them in Syria. That would calm everything down. If we do not reach an agreement with Syria, the first military clashes will take place on Syrian soil. He will not dare to attack Israeli territory, and we will not dare to attack Turkey. But both states have military forces in Syria, and if there is no trilateral or quadrilateral agreement with the Syrians and the Americans, there will be incidents with Turkey in a short time—and then no one knows where it will escalate.”

“Turkey is massively strengthening its air capabilities for air defense, out of genuine fear of an Israeli attack. There are also factors in the conflict between Turkey and Greece that can escalate. I’m just saying: When you build a military alliance, a vacuum does not form on the other side. They will strengthen their alliance with Azerbaijan, expand their presence in Syria, and prepare for a military confrontation with Israel,” Liel summarized.

He also emphasized that Israel does not trust the new Syrian regime and is trying to remain in the areas it captured since Assad’s fall. “Without a withdrawal from these areas, there can be no agreement.”

Liel further stated that Israel must be very careful not to lose its strategic relationship with Azerbaijan:

“Azerbaijan has a military alliance with Turkey, and if we strengthen the Cypriot-Greek alliance with military elements, Erdoğan will implement his alliance with Azerbaijan. He already no longer allows Azerbaijan to send soldiers to Gaza—he has blocked that.”

Regarding the United States, Liel assessed that Washington—unlike in the past—is no longer in a panic over an Israeli-Turkish dispute:

“In the past, the Americans always intervened whenever we quarreled with the Turks, and in 2013 Barack Obama himself came and forced Benjamin Netanyahu to apologize to Erdoğan because they feared an escalation of relations. Today it is no longer important to them. What matters to them are Saudi Arabia and Qatar—countries with money. Turkey has no money.”

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