US President Donald Trump is expected to return to Washington on Friday after completing his brief trip to China. Immediately afterward, he is expected to return to the Iran crisis.
Trump is likely to hold a series of consultations in order to decide how the war against Iran should continue. Several options are on the table:
- Continuing negotiations with Iran and attempting to reach a temporary agreement extending the ceasefire by 30 days, during which understandings would be pursued.
- Resuming “Project Freedom” in the Strait of Hormuz while increasing military pressure on Iran.
- Resuming combat operations in one of two possible forms: either a limited surgical strike intended to push the Iranians toward greater flexibility, or a decision to move into intensive, full-scale warfare.
In Israel, officials do not know how Trump will decide, and understand that ultimately everything depends on his personal decision. It is also possible that the decision could take several more days. Nevertheless, Israel is preparing for a resumption of fighting that would have direct consequences for the country.
At the same time, Israel is not certain whether, in the event of renewed combat, the Americans would ask it to act alongside them. It is possible, rather, that the Americans would prefer Israel to stay out of it and not participate in the strikes.
The American understanding is that Israeli involvement in attacks would inevitably lead Iran to fire missiles at Israel — and from there, the path to a long and intense war on all fronts would be very short. That is not a scenario that particularly excites the Americans.
However, the instruction from Israel’s political leadership to the military is to prepare for renewed combat operations as early as the coming weekend.
Israel would like to see fighting resume, with a focus on infrastructure and energy targets. In Israel’s view, this could accelerate the collapse of the Iranian regime. The Americans, however, are hesitant about this course because they believe Iran would then attack energy facilities in the Gulf, which could drive oil prices even higher.
Judging by Trump’s remarks during his China trip and even before it, it appears that he wants to give negotiations with Iran another chance and exhaust that possibility. Trump even said there is progress in the talks with Iran. This apparently refers to the channel being led by Qatar.
Trump also said that China had assured him it would not provide military support to Iran and would help efforts to reach an agreement with Tehran, with the goal of reopening the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as possible.
This increases the possibility that Trump will first wait to see whether the Chinese truly have influence over the Iranians.
A resumption of fighting against Iran would also have immediate consequences for the war situation in Lebanon. In such a case, Israel would ask the Americans for a green light to resume strikes in Beirut, against the backdrop of Hezbollah’s increasing use of explosive drones.
In Israel, there is great frustration that the Americans are tying Israel’s hands and not allowing operations in Beirut. Israel wants greater freedom of action, but at the same time also wants to give talks with the Lebanese government another chance.
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