A new Channel 12 poll suggests that if elections were held today, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would lose power, yet the Israeli electorate continues to tilt decisively to the right.
The numbers show Likud dropping to 24 seats, while Naftali Bennett’s new party surges to 21, positioning him as the likely alternative to Netanyahu. Other right-wing factions—Israel Beiteinu (11), Otzma Yehudit (5), and Religious Zionism (4)—would combine with Likud to give the nationalist bloc 65 seats. Add the ultra-Orthodox Shas (9) and United Torah Judaism (7), and the conservative-religious bloc commands 81 of 120 seats.
By contrast, the center-left is shrinking into near irrelevance. The Democrats (11), Gadi Eizenkot’s new party Yashar (10), and Yesh Atid (9) muster just 30 seats between them. Arab parties, split between Hadash-Taal (5) and Ra’am (5), retain influence but remain outside the core of government formation.
According to the poll, Benny Gatz’s “Blue and White” party would fail to pass the electoral threshold.
The Netanyahu question
The poll underscores a central paradox: Israeli society is more right-wing and conservative than ever, but Netanyahu’s personal brand is eroding. Parties that openly support him would control just 49 seats—well short of a majority.
That again leaves Bennett as kingmaker. As in 2021, he could stitch together a narrow anti-Netanyahu coalition with Israel Beiteinu, the Democrats, Yashar, and Yesh Atid—barely scraping 62 seats. But such a coalition would be ideologically incoherent, uniting factions from the right, center, and left whose only common denominator is opposition to Netanyahu. Last time, that experiment collapsed quickly.
What it means
The larger story is not about Netanyahu’s fortunes but about Israel’s political gravity. The “Left” has almost disappeared; the center is weak; and the right-wing bloc dominates numerically and ideologically. The fight over Israel’s future is less about policy than about one man—and whether a viable governing coalition, either with or without him, can be established.
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