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MembersTacheles with Aviel – A Pause for Peace or a Pause Before the Storm?

If you read the headlines these days, you might almost believe the Middle East is on the verge of a historic breakthrough.

Trump
US President Donald Trump boarding Air Force One at Geneva Airport following the G7 summit in Évian, 17 June 2026. Photo: EPA/Martial Trezzini/POOL

Washington and Tehran have signed a “Memorandum of Understanding.” President Donald Trump speaks of an opportunity for stability, his staff of a diplomatic achievement. In Israel, there is a simultaneous attempt to balance confidence with skepticism. But anyone who knows the history of this region understands that moments of hope are often the most dangerous. Because despite all the euphoria surrounding the new agreement, one thing must be clearly understood: this is not a peace treaty. It is not even a final nuclear agreement. What is currently on the table is primarily a 60-day ceasefire—a window of time in which negotiations are supposed to take place. Sixty days during which the weapons are meant to fall silent. Sixty days during which diplomats are meant to work. But also sixty days during which everything could fail and the entire region could erupt once again.

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance revealed further details overnight about the memorandum that Washington and Tehran have already signed electronically. The document itself is...

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Patrick Callahan

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