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MembersTehran’s enduring playbook: Survival through crisis

The Islamic Republic remains dangerous, but danger should not be mistaken for strength.

Iran
People carry Irani, Palestinian and Hezbollah flags as they celebrate the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, at the Palestine square in Tehran, Iran, 16 January 2025. Photo: EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH

(JNS) U.S. President Donald Trump may present the new agreement with Iran as a diplomatic success, but the fundamental realities that have defined the Islamic Republic since 1979 remain unchanged. Iran’s nuclear ambitions, proxy network, revolutionary ideology and security apparatus all survived the confrontation intact.

While Washington often measures success through agreements and reduced tensions, Tehran measures success through survival—and by that standard, the regime emerged with its most valuable strategic asset: time. For Israel, the Arab Gulf states and millions of Iranians who oppose clerical rule, the underlying threat and political challenge remain unresolved. The agreement may have postponed a crisis, but it did not solve the problem that produced it.

The Islamic Republic does not behave like a normal state because it is not a normal state. It is a revolutionary system that has survived for nearly five decades by manufacturing crises, exporting instability and turning confrontation into a tool of political survival.

The regime’s strategic doctrine is simple:...

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About the author

Patrick Callahan

This is an example of author bio/description. Beard fashion axe trust fund, post-ironic listicle scenester. Uniquely mesh maintainable users rather than plug-and-play testing procedures.

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