There are several critical questions that the joint Israeli-Egyptian investigation into the deadly terrorist attack on the two countries’ shared border on Saturday must address.
During the incident, which lasted several hours, three Israel Defense Forces soldiers were killed by an Egyptian police officer. The first two were killed at around 6:00 a.m., according to the IDF, and the third some two hours later, during a shootout that broke out after back-up forces arrived to search for the gunman.
Israeli forces led by the regional brigade commander killed the gunman soon afterwards.
1. Lone wolf?
The first key question is whether the terrorist, who was armed with an AK-47, acted on his own, or as a member of a larger terrorist group that has infiltrated Egypt’s security forces.
Egypt’s initial claim, that the terrorist had entered Israeli territory in pursuit of drug smugglers, is unconvincing, and reflects pressure within Egypt to smooth over the incident with a convenient narrative rather than attempt to ascertain the facts.
It is fair to assume that Israel has made it clear, behind closed doors, that this explanation is illogical and unacceptable in light of the assailant’s conduct; he remained in Israeli territory for two hours after the initial shooting, before he again fired on Israeli forces.
2. Coordinated distraction?
The second question must address the role that a significant drug smuggling run, which occurred at 2:30 a.m. that same night, and in the same area, may have played in the attack.
Both incidents occurred in the desolate Mount Harif border region, and the attempt to smuggle some 1.5 million shekels’ worth ($400,000) of narcotics into Israel, at the same time as the attack is unlikely to have been a coincidence.
Was the smuggling run, which the IDF thwarted, an attempt to distract the military?
3. Undermining Israel-Egypt cooperation?
A third question that needs to be given consideration is whether the attack was the result of a jihadist-Islamist group seeking to undermine the ongoing security cooperation at the border between the Israeli and Egyptian militaries.
Both Islamic State (ISIS) and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood are vehemently ideologically opposed to strategic ties between the two countries, and both are also committed to the overthrow of the el-Sisi government in Cairo.
To date, Israeli-Egyptian cooperation has managed to largely stem both drug trafficking and terrorist infiltration from Sinai.
The attack might have been an effort to undo this stability and bring anarchy to the area. In order to stop further attacks, it is crucial that Israel and Egypt get to the bottom of these questions, and maintain their cooperation.
Israeli investigation and reassessment
Separately to the joint investigation, the IDF is holding its own independent in-depth inquiry, led by Southern Command chief Maj. Gen. Eliezer Toledano, and the commander of the territorial 80th Division, responsible for the area, Brig. Gen. Itzik Cohen.
The incident occurred in the jurisdiction of the Paran Brigade, which defends 170 kilometers (105 miles) of the Israel-Egypt border, and swaths of the adjacent Negev desert.
The brigade includes both the Bardelas (Cheetah) and Caracal (Wildcat) co-ed battalions, and has scored growing success against drug smugglers seeking to move enormous amounts of narcotics into Israel from Sinai.
Last year, the Paran Brigade set up a joint operations center in Beersheva together with the Israel Police and Israeli Air Force to coordinate security operations. The result has been a 30% drop in cross-border drug runs in 2021 compared to 2022, according to the IDF.
Much of that success depends on the operational assumption that Egyptian security positions around the border are on the same team, and that the border is a peaceful frontier in regards to the official state security forces on the other side of it.
That is why Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told his Egyptian counterpart, Mohamed Zaki, on Saturday, “Our cooperation in investigating the severe attack that took place today, is of great importance to the ties between our countries.”
Gallant’s comments express both the deep strategic interest that both countries have in maintaining this cooperation, and the no less important need to get to the facts of the incident, with full transparency.
Egypt working on ‘long-term’ plan for Gaza Strip
In related news, Egypt is said to be working on a “long-term truce” between terrorist factions in the Gaza Strip and Israel, the London-based The New Arab news site reported on Sunday.
The report comes several weeks after Cairo brokered an end to the brief war (“Operation Shield and Arrow”) between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist group in Gaza and as the government of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi continues to play an active role in the affairs of the Strip, with which it shares a border.
According to Egyptian sources familiar with the mediation efforts, Cairo has conveyed the message that the senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad officials should attend the new round of talks in Cairo in person because “the leaders will be looking at highly sensitive files.”
One of the Egyptian sources told the pan-Arab news site that the meeting comes amid new international and regional understandings involving the United States, Qatar and Egypt that will “include broader roles for Cairo in terms of its presence in the Gaza Strip” and necessitate the direct involvement of the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
“There have been consultations during the last period between Egyptian and Iranian security officials regarding the situation in the Gaza Strip and the occupied territories, due to Tehran’s role in supporting Hamas and the Islamic Jihad,” the source said.
Another Egyptian source said the plan includes an expansion of trade with Gaza through the establishment in the Strip of a subsidiary port of Sinai’s el-Arish Port to be administered by Egypt.
It also includes a highway to be constructed linking Gaza with the city of el-Arish, the largest in the Sinai Peninsula. The highway would be used to transport goods from Gaza to the Egyptian port for export abroad and import into the Strip.
Also under discussion as part of the plan: Egypt supplying Gaza with electricity that would involve a large project starting at 100 megawatts and increasing from there in stages, possibly to 300 MW.
The final part of the plan involves exploiting the natural gas reserves off the Gaza coast.
According to the report, Egypt is hesitant to get involved in managing a port inside Gaza because Cairo would be held responsible by Israel and the international community if the port is used to bring weapons into the Strip. The Egyptians would therefore want a broad security role in the Strip that the Palestinian terrorist factions would not accept.
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