A new report by the London-based Institute for Jewish Policy Research shows that, for the first time in modern history, Israel could become the home of the majority of Jews worldwide within the next decade — a demographic turning point of historic significance that goes far beyond statistics.
Israel overtakes the Diaspora — birth rate and immigration as driving forces
The global Jewish population currently stands at around 15.8 million — fewer than the population of the Netherlands. Of these, almost 7.8 million already live in Israel, representing roughly 49 percent. The trend is unmistakable: while Jewish communities in the Diaspora are shrinking or stagnating, Israel continues to grow steadily.
At the beginning of 2026, Israel surpassed the 10 million population mark for the first time, with Jews making up 76.3 percent of the population.
The main driver is Israel’s exceptionally high birth rate. Even in secular Tel Aviv, the average number of children per family is higher than in any European country. The median age in Israel is just 29.3 years — far below Germany’s 47 years or the United States’ 38 years.
This is accompanied by continuing waves of immigration. Most recently, 250 members of the Bnei Menashe community from India celebrated their arrival at Ben Gurion Airport — a symbol of the ongoing fulfillment of the Zionist vision: the return of Jews from all over the world.
Diaspora shrinking — especially in Europe and the United States
Professor Sergio DellaPergola of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, who authored the report for the Institute, paints a clear picture of both the present and the future.
Jewish communities in Europe are shrinking due to emigration, low birth rates, and increasing assimilation. In the United States as well — still the world’s second-largest Jewish community, with around six to seven million Jews — concern is growing. Intermarriage, declining Jewish identification, and rampant antisemitism are driving more and more American Jews toward Israel.
DellaPergola writes: “If there is still a world in 2126, there will be a Jewish people — but one fundamentally different from today’s, in a world even more unrecognizable than the one in which we live now.”
By 2050, ultra-Orthodox Jews could make up almost one-third of Israel’s Jewish population — a shift that will carry profound social and political consequences.
For Israel, this demographic change also represents a geopolitical shift. As the home of the majority of Jews worldwide, the Jewish state’s responsibility for the entire Jewish world will grow — and with it the pressure to prove itself as a safe, livable, and future-ready center of Jewish life.
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