A number of people are asking how it can be that no new Palestinian uprising has broken out. After all, there has been plenty of incentive of late, most notably the American recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the transfer of the US Embassy here.

US President Donald Trump has made it clear in his deal of the century that the Temple Mount and the Old City of Jerusalem will be part of the capital of Israel. In addition, Washington has now also agreed for the first time to an Israeli annexation of the disputed territories in the biblical heartland of Judea and Samaria.

And yet, no third intifada has broken out, although the Palestinian leadership has issued warnings and threatened Israel with a new uprising. Jerusalem is the third holiest site in Islam, and this red line is not permitted to be touched. “Millions of martyrs will march on Jerusalem and defend the city,” Palestinian leaders and Arab governments threatened. But still no intifada. Israel has even succeeded in the last two years in establishing new baselines...