The Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah (64), used to boast that he knew Israeli society and the political balance of power in Israel well and diligently followed the Israeli media and the mood in the country. He even said on camera that Israeli society is destroying itself and that Israel will not survive another 80 years.

“I don’t know this from the journalists in Israel, but from the women in the country,” was one of his comments.

But since the war began on October 7, he made strategic mistakes and committed serious miscalculations regarding Israel. And why? Nasrallah was “addicted” to Israel. He always followed the Israeli media to learn about Israeli society, but this ultimately seduced him and led him to make wrong decisions. His two biggest mistakes were that he attacked Israel twice over the Gaza Strip, dragging Lebanon into “hell.” Once on July 12, 2006, and then on October 8, 2023. Supporting Hamas in its quest to destroy Israel has become a curse for Hezbollah, and for Lebanon. It all started with Nasrallah’s arrogance. He really believed he could make Israel a “blip” of modern history. Nasrallah ruled Lebanon as Hezbollah chief for 32 years. Here are some of Nasrallah’s tactical mistakes.

1. Arrogance. He actually believed that the “Zionist entity” would soon disappear.
2. On the first day of the war, October 7, when he did not order the highly trained Radwan terrorist militia stationed on the border with Israel to invade the Galilee – parallel to the Hamas incursion into southern Israel. These units had been trained for years for this mission and were ready to invade Israel. As a result, and to our great relief, Nasrallah missed an opportunity to score a major victory against Israel. There were not enough Israeli forces stationed on the border with Lebanon on October 7th, and he could have conquered much of the Galilee with relative ease. According to sources in Lebanon, Nasrallah was not informed by Yahya Sinwar about the timing of the Hamas invasion. He knew Hamas’s general intention, but not the exact timing of “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.” By the time he recovered from the shock, the Israeli army had already deployed large forces to the northern border, and thus the opportunity was missed.
3. Nasrallah did not learn the necessary lessons from the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and once again plunged the people of Lebanon into a dangerous adventure to support Iran’s agenda in the region. At that time he publicly admitted that it was a mistake to drag Lebanon into a war with Israel. The trigger was the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip, including Gilad Shalit, for whom Netanyahu freed over 1,000 terrorists. Nasrallah linked the fate of Lebanon to that of the Gaza Strip, which earned him harsh criticism within Lebanon and also within the Shiite community from which Hezbollah emerged. This led to the destruction and devastation of southern Lebanon, hundreds of civilians killed and about half a million people displaced and forced to flee to Beirut and other parts of Lebanon.
4. Nasrallah misjudged Israel’s national resilience. He was convinced that Israel was only capable of short wars. He wrongly assumed that the international community would impose harsh sanctions on Israel and force it to end the war, which did not happen. He was also convinced that the issue of Israeli hostages would bring Israel’s political leadership to its knees in order to meet Hamas’s demands. In doing so, he misread Netanyahu’s behavior. Bibi did realize he couldn’t repeat his own mistakes, even though the hostages are paying the price.
5. Nasrallah made a miscalculation regarding the strength of the Israeli Air Force and intelligence services. The Israeli army had thoroughly prepared for war on the northern front, and made an extensive and precise list of targets. The Israeli Air Force is carrying out their destructive plans with near perfection.

Straight talk: Nasrallah did not understand that Israel is fighting for its existence and that the determined Israeli citizens have no intention of leaving the country. His mistakes have cost Hezbollah and the Lebanese people dearly. His image of being a clever and successful terrorist leader has changed. Recently, he is seen in Lebanon and the Arab world as a failed, lying and defeated leader who supported the Iranian agenda in the region and not, as he claimed all these years, as someone who defended Lebanon. Hassan Nasrallah’s death emboldens the Sunni and Arab axis in the Middle East against Iran, and Israel must now take advantage of this.