(JNS) Every time antisemitism spikes abroad—constantly, these days—certain Israeli pundits, politicians and members of the public leap to the same ostensibly comforting conclusion: that it will finally spur Diaspora Jews to “come home.”

The reference is to well-off Westerners, not members of the tribe escaping poverty and persecution at the hands of hostile regimes. The latter is and has always been a given. Anyone imagining that the former is about to follow suit is engaged in fantasy.

Nevertheless, Israel’s Aliyah and Integration Ministry recently conducted a war-game exercise modeling a mass immigration scenario, with some 45,000 Jews arriving in bulk. The drill was held on Thursday in Ramle, with representatives from national organizations and NGOs.

Their task was to simulate a future scenario in which 800 new olim (immigrants) arrived in Israel every day over the course of one to two months. The purpose of the exercise was to test Israel’s capacity to absorb such a large and sudden influx of Jews seeking safer shores in their homeland.

It’s all well and good—necessary, in fact—to be prepared for the unexpected. Indeed, being taken by surprise can have devastating consequences, as the Oct. 7 massacre so tragically illustrated. But anticipating such an unlikely event as large-scale aliyah, certainly from North America, is probably pointless.

Let’s face it: Relocation is difficult under normal circumstances, such as moving from one US state to another for a job opportunity. And few Diaspora Jews actually take the plunge, despite mulling it.

Ironically, Israelis don’t seem to have that problem. The data back this up.

According to the Knesset Research and Information Center’s 2025 report, Israel lost a net 145,900 people between 2020 and 2024. Yes, during this period, more Israelis left for long-term stays abroad than returned from living overseas.

Meanwhile, in 2024 alone, emigration exceeded immigration (including when adding the number of returnees) by roughly 18,000 people. So, Israel’s demographic challenge is not that the Diaspora is slow to come; it’s that many Israelis themselves are leaving.

This doesn’t mean that there’s an irreversible exodus going on. It does indicate, however, that the myth of imminent, voluntary Jewish ingathering should be put in mothballs.

Don’t get me wrong. Aliyah is singular among the life choices I’ve never regretted. Israel, with all its warts, is the most interesting, vibrant, sexy, engaging place on earth.

Still, not everyone feels that way. My own father, for example—accused for decades of “dual loyalty” as an American passionate in his political support for Israel—used to quip, “I’d die for Israel, but I’d rather die than live there.”

Joking aside, it’s hard for adults to uproot their kids, leave their aging parents, abandon familiar social networks and often forfeit professional status for an ideology, no matter how potent. Then there’s the challenge of learning Hebrew and navigating an unfamiliar bureaucratic landscape. Oh, and the culture that prides itself on chutzpah and directness, which many Western Jews consider abrasive.

In addition, the pace in Israel, like the humor and unwritten rules, is different from those of New York, Paris and London. Property prices, too, present an obstacle. I’ve heard interested parties gasp that a shoebox in Tel Aviv can cost more than a large apartment in Manhattan.

Each of us knows Jews who adore visiting Israel. They feel happy the moment the plane lands at Ben-Gurion International Airport. They enjoy the cafés, the energy, the sense of a shared destiny that they don’t feel in Boston or Antwerp or Sydney. Yet they, too, will never move here.

What they might do is buy a pied-à-terre in Jerusalem, a Tel Aviv investment property or a Herzliya getaway for summers and holidays. Their hearts are in Israel; their daily lives are not.

As for Diaspora Jews and Israelis residing abroad who say they’re planning to “come home”: Their timeline is usually vague. “When the kids finish high school,” they say. “Or college.”

Or as soon as the real-estate market improves. Or after retirement.

These aren’t lame excuses; they’re part of the reality of human existence. And that’s from Jews who genuinely care about Israel.

Neither the sector that’s indifferent to the Jewish state, nor that which regularly bashes it, has the slightest interest in making aliyah. Some go as far as to assert that Israel is a failed experiment—an illegitimate one, to boot.

They’re dead wrong, of course. Israel is a monumental—moral—success story. And though it welcomes the world’s Jews, it can’t perform magic tricks to magnetize them.

Antisemitism may serve as a powerful push for individuals. But without a personal pull, the majority will stay put.

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