When I read the news this morning that US President Donald Trump had called off the announced attacks on Iran at short notice, I wasn’t surprised, to be honest. I already had a feeling last night that events might be heading in exactly this direction.
This isn’t the first time Trump has publicly announced a military strike—and then called it off at the last minute. This pattern has been observed repeatedly in recent months. First come harsh threats, then a possible attack is publicly suggested, and just before things get serious, a diplomatic avenue suddenly opens up again.
Once again, the military threats were surprisingly followed by a diplomatic turnaround.
Trump stated on his platform TruthSocial that the United States had suspended planned attacks against Iran after progress was made in talks on a possible agreement. According to him, the “basic outlines of an agreement” had been agreed upon. He also wrote that Iran, along with other Middle Eastern states, had asked Washington to suspend the attacks for the time being to give the negotiations a chance.
“The U.S.A. is locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II. Despite this, we have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that… pic.twitter.com/Ylmlm06j3E
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) August 2, 2026
These statements have not yet been independently verified. Neither Tehran nor Jerusalem has yet issued an official confirmation of Trump’s account. His statement that Israel would also refrain from further attacks during the ongoing talks is being followed with particular interest in Israel. A corresponding statement from the Israeli government was not available at the time of publication.
Outwardly, much pointed to a further military escalation in recent days. The United States continued its attacks on Iranian targets, Trump repeatedly threatened new strikes, and Israel, too, awaited his decision with bated breath. Nevertheless, I couldn’t shake the feeling that he would keep the possibility of a diplomatic turnaround open until the very last minute.
Whether the announced change of course actually marks the beginning of a new diplomatic process or is merely another episode in Trump’s negotiating style cannot yet be said.
However, I wonder if this very interplay is part of his strategy.
Perhaps that was precisely part of his calculation from the beginning. Anyone who publicly announces a potential military strike puts the opponent under maximum pressure – politically, militarily, and psychologically. At the same time, he keeps open the possibility of pursuing a diplomatic route at the last minute. Should the opponent agree to this, he can portray the negotiated success as his own. If he doesn’t, the military option remains.
Whether this is actually Trump’s strategy is probably known to only a few people in the White House. However, the impression is strong that publicly announcing a possible military strike has long since become a standard part of his negotiating tactics.
It remains entirely unclear whether Trump’s announcement will actually lead to an agreement or whether military escalation has merely been postponed. The coming days will show whether Iran is prepared to make genuine concessions – or whether Washington and Jerusalem will soon find themselves facing the same decision as just a few hours ago.
One thing Donald Trump has certainly achieved once again: keeping friend and foe alike in the dark. And perhaps that is precisely his greatest strength – or at least the strategy with which he repeatedly surprises his opponents.
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