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MembersWill the Iran war lead to regime change?

Of course Iranians want to topple the Islamists, “they don’t have anything to eat,” says INSS expert. But the obstacles remain formidable.

Iranians drive past a burned-out Bank Melli branch in Tehran on January 19, 2026. The destruction occurred during nationwide protests - could the war further exacerbate these internal pressures and trigger upheaval? Photo: EPA/Abedin Taherkenareh
Iranians drive past a burned-out Bank Melli branch in Tehran on January 19, 2026. The destruction occurred during nationwide protests - could the war further exacerbate these internal pressures and trigger upheaval? Photo: EPA/Abedin Taherkenareh

(JNS) Following weeks of military strikes, US President Donald Trump recently declared that the war against Iran has achieved a forced transition of power.

“We really have regime change. You know, this is a change in the regime because the leaders are all very different than the ones that we started with, that created all those problems,” Trump said.

While formal regime change was not the stated goal of either the Israeli or the US operations at their inception, it has always lurked in the background as a distinct possibility. The convergence of a decapitated leadership structure, catastrophic wartime economic devastation and an emboldened populace has pushed the state to the brink of total collapse. President Trump clearly characterized the current vulnerability of the Islamic Republic, saying, “The regime is a rotting corpse; let’s bury it and build a future where Iran and America thrive together. The opportunity is here; let’s seize it.”

Fertile ground for revolution

Iran possesses a modern history defined by mass uprisings. The current war represents a direct...

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Patrick Callahan

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