All eyes in Israel are understandably on the Islamic Republic of Iran, as the Jewish state’s most dedicated regional foe appears on the brink of regime change.

Israel’s own “Operation Rising Lion” in June of last year exposed the weaknesses of the ayatollah regime, but everyone knew it could only truly be brought down from within, by the Iranian people.

The question now is if the Iranians taking to the streets for the past two weeks will receive the backing they desperately need, most importantly from the United States.

It was the United States under former President Jimmy Carter that facilitated through its lack of intervention the 1979 Islamic Revolution that saw the overthrow of the shah and the rise of an extremist Islamic regime under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

The West, like so many Iranians, was duped. The regime of the former shah had its problems, to be sure, but what replaced it was far worse than what anyone could have imagined.

On Israel’s Channel 12 News last night, the panelists openly asked, “Will Trump now correct Carter’s historic mistake?”

US President Donald Trump threatened to directly intervene if the ayatollah regime began to massacre its own people. Reports indicate it is doing so. Now everyone, Iranians and Israelis in particular, are wondering if Trump will follow through on that threat.

Given his recent track record, there’s every reason to believe he will.

But what would direct American intervention look like at this stage?

Israeli commentator Amit Segal offered four possibilities:

1. Further pressure Iran economically – America could do this easily, but the goal of such action is to prompt the people to take the streets. They’re already out there;
2. Strike missile and nuclear facilities – Again, this embarrasses the regime, but does little to actually aid the protesters in the streets;
3. Strike IRGC and other facilities of regime forces – At this point such action would be largely symbolic and do little to help the people fight their oppressors, who are likewise out in the streets;
4. Take out Khamenei – US forces conduct another Venezuela-like operation and either capture or kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This would be hugely symbolic and likely greatly bolster the demonstrations, but not necessarily bring down the entire regime.

Which course of action will be taken is anyone’s guess at this point. Segal noted that Israeli officials who might be knowledgeable regarding American plans are playing their cards close to the chest, similar to how they responded to questions in the days leading up to Operation Rising Lion.

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