“The enemies see a historic opportunity in Israel’s crisis,” Israeli military intelligence (known by the acronym AMAN) warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In recent months, AMAN has sent four warning letters to Netanyahu, in which the intelligence department stressed the grave security implications in the shadow of societal division. Iran and Hezbollah prefer to bleed Israel dry from within, and Israel’s deterrence is waning significantly. The letter says that the enemies see a historic opportunity to change the strategic situation in the Middle East once and for all as a result of the unprecedented crisis in Israel.
Senior military intelligence officers warn that the damage is not only immediate, but will also have long-term consequences. According to AMAN’s analysis, enemies like Iran and Hezbollah divide Israeli deterrence into four pillars, all of which have been weakened amid public disunity:
- The strength of the Israel Defense Forces.
- The alliance with the Americans.
- The strong economy.
- The unity among the people.
With all four pillars seemingly weakened, it looks like a perfect chance to attack and destroy Israel. Enemies are waiting for just right moment, and Israeli military intelligence has trusted sources telling them that.
As previously reported, the Hamas leadership in Tehran met with the ayatollah regime and discussed the best time to attack Israel. It was decided to postpone an attack for the simple reason that it was too early and an attack would at this point still serve to unite the people of Israel. The rift within the nation must widen further, only then will the attack be worthwhile. In addition, an interview with former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made headlines in the British media: “Israel is entering a civil war,” he said. Hours after the Knesset approved the lifting of the reasonableness criteria, and in the shadow of huge demonstrations across the country, Olmert said: “There will be civil disobedience, with all sorts of consequences for the country’s stability and the government’s ability to run the country.” From his point of view, the right-wing government under Benjamin Netanyahu is not legitimate.
Israel’s enemies are patiently observing developments among the people of Israel and will strike when the time comes. Israelis, meanwhile, are genuinely concerned about civil war. Fifty-eight percent view this as a real possibility, according to a survey by the daily newspaper Ma’ariv. Only 38% of Israelis fear no civil war. Another 4% are unsure. Either way, everyone’s talking about it. The threat is in the air like never before, and it passes on, as if blown on the wind, across the borders and to the ears of our eager enemies.
Israel’s political crisis with America is viewed as extremely serious in the eyes of Israel’s enemies. As for the army’s competence, AMAN sees how Iran and Hezbollah are closely monitoring the crisis among IDF reservists and the damage to the Israeli army’s vital systems. The “summer of 2023” in Israel, as the enemy sees Israel’s situation, represents a historical weak point. If intelligence officials until now only spoke of tactical Arab strikes against Israel, now they see the possibility for a much larger conflict, or round of wars, because Israel’s enemies see a significant erosion and lack of basic deterrence in Israel.
In addition to warning letters to Israel’s prime minister, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi met with Netanyahu and presented him with concrete information and evidence supporting the AMAN analysis. Intelligence estimates that Iran and Hezbollah are sitting on the fence, waiting for Israel to bleed itself a bit more. The likelihood of an escalation has increased dramatically because of the disagreement over judicial reform, and this is what Israel’s security apparatus needs to bear in mind. This explains, among other things, why a majority of former chiefs of Mossad, Shin Bet, Police and the IDF have warned Netanyahu to stop legal reforms because this will ruin Israel’s deterrence strategy and thus endanger Israel’s very existence.
But on the other hand, right-wing ministers, columnists and politicians see this as some kind of military coup. Generals who frighten the nation unnecessarily in order to stop the right-wing national government and its policies. For this reason, these warnings from Israeli military intelligence are not taken so seriously by the coalition. Time will tell who is right, but in the meantime Israel’s enemies are lurking and this must be taken seriously.
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