(JNS) History is filled with ignored warnings, but only rarely does it deliver a moment so clarifying that denial becomes more dangerous than confrontation. Fifteen years ago, I argued that radical Islam threatens Western civilization not through military conquest, but through “slow jihad”: demographic pressure, moral confusion and normalization within open societies. In its early stages, this process was sustained by institutional guilt and a media culture that reflexively equated scrutiny of Islamism with bigotry. As Muslim populations grew in key regions, moral paralysis gave way to political calculation, as politicians increasingly courted Muslim votes, often at the expense of assimilation, social cohesion and liberal norms.
Long-developing civilizational pressures rarely provoke action until a single, undeniable shock crystallizes them. That shock came on Oct. 7, 2023. It marked the moment when denial became untenable—not only for Jews, who have long understood the pattern, but for the broader West. The atrocities themselves were barbaric enough. What followed—the celebrations, justifications and moral inversions across Western capitals—was something more: a revelation. The question is no longer whether the warnings were correct, but whether...
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